Economic Growth Expected To Keep Getting Better


Economic growth is expected to continue in the U.S. throughout 2018, according to the nation's purchasing and supply executives in their Spring 2018 Semiannual Economic Forecast. 

Expectations for the remainder of 2018 continue to be positive in both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors.

These projections are part of the forecast issued by the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Business Survey Committees.

The forecast was presented today by Timothy R. Fiore CPSM, C.P.M., chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee; and by Anthony S. Nieves, CPSM, SC.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, chair of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

Sixty-two percent of respondents from the panel of manufacturing supply management executives predict their revenues, on average, will be 11.6 percent greater in 2018 compared to 2017, 5 percent expect a 11.9 percent decline, and 33 percent foresee no change in revenue. This yields an overall average forecast of 6.6 percent revenue growth among manufacturers for 2018.

This current prediction is 1.5 percentage points above the December 2017 forecast of 5.1-percent revenue growth for 2018 and is 2.5 percentage points above the actual revenue growth reported for all of 2017. With operating rate at 85.8 percent, an expected capital expenditure increase of 10.1 percent, an increase of 5 percent for prices paid for raw materials, and employment expected to increase by 1.8 percent by the end of 2018 compared to the end of 2017, manufacturing is positioned to grow revenues while managing costs through the remainder of the year.

"With 15 of the 18 manufacturing sector industries predicting revenue growth in 2018, when compared to 2017, U.S. manufacturing continues to move in a positive direction. However, finding and onboarding qualified labor and being able to pass on raw material price increases will ultimately define manufacturing revenues and profitability," says Fiore.

The 15 industries reporting expectations of growth in revenue for 2018 — listed in order — are: Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Wood Products; Primary Metals; Machinery; Chemical Products; Paper Products; Furniture & Related Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Nonmetallic Mineral Products.

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